| https://www.livetradingfootball.com/index.php/en/2016-03-17-15-11-09/strategies/itemlist |
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Placing 2 bets before kick off: ---------------------------------------------- Third bet introduce during halftime is over 0.5 fulltime If the first bet loses a third bet is placed during half time and an adjustment of the second bet may be needed. ----------------------
The 2 bets are backing 0-0 full time and the one you introduce
during halftime is over 0.5 fulltime. odds of 0-0 full time should
be 18 or above and odds of laying 0-0 half time should be 0.27 or
above. odds of 0.5 fulltime should be 0.15 or above. -------------------- You are all forgetting one thing, the team must be clear favourite, what you looking is only odds, match selection is important also, more wins should be at the half time lays, the third bet is coming in play at half time laying the score that you think it would not happen, for example: Do you think San Marino can beat Holland 2-0? I think only in science fiction, so you must lay scores that you think will not happen and making up profits on scores that you think one of them will occur, it is simple this slicer strategy, however this is not 100% strategy it never were 100% strategy this man “slicer” claims it is. BUT ITS NOT because it is not 100% strategy nothing is 100% in football so this slicers method is also not 100% |
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Pick two close teams were their will not be many goals. Laying one of them to win. And then backing the same team to win 1-0 2-1 and 2-0. so the only way you can lose is if the score is 3-0 or more |
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The Fibonacci |
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When a game draws at half time 0-0 or 1-1 the liability odds drifts
from the start of the game (2-3) odds and when a goal scored the
draw odds shifts depending on the time been scored. |
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https://www.livetradingfootball.com/index.php/en/2016-03-17-15-11-09/strategies/item/64-vista http://www.betspot.net/tips-and-betting-strategies http://www.laythedraw.net/how-to-trade-laying-under-15-and-under-25-goals.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgKqWxxLyc0 Lay the draw |
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Is this the Holy Grail for football? ----------
Yes HT draw is the primary market. It gives more profit if you
ignore the 1-1 HT back, but in most selected matches the odds for
this are about 11.0, so I am not sacrificing too much profit to gain
an additional saver bet. A lot of extra profit is gained if 0-0 at
HT and can you wait some minutes of the second half before greening. ----------
One of bets 2 and 3 is guaranteed to lose and any winnings for the
match must take into account the amount lost between these bets. |
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Strategy explainedThe strategy itself is a very easy strategy to understand but it can become very time consuming especially on a weekend when there are 100s of football matches worldwide. To use the strategy you wait for a match to go in play and wait until the 75th minute of the match and you go to the correct score market and whatever the score is at that current time you click that score to lay and you change the odds you want to lay for to 1.6 this means that if you lay the score for £10 the liability will be £6. The bet doesn't usually match until around the 80th minute of the game it depends on the ability of both teams and the amount bet on the match worldwide. If there is a goal between the 75th and the 80th minute and your bet hasn't been matched leave it as a no bet and DO NOT re place your bet as statistics shown that there are a lot fewer goals if goals had been scored between them 5 minutes. Also do not lay the score if the game is 0 0 as when the majority of games are 0 0 with 10 minutes to go they stay 0 0 also if a team has scored 3 goals do not lay the score as the odds to lay are higher because the option after is any other scored.
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LTD
and back 0-0 |
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Lay the draw trading A more advanced strategy contains both laying and backing. You just lay the draw, but you back the draw correct scores, starting from 0-0 and going to 1-1 or 2-2. If you’re sure that at least a goal will be scored you can omit backing the 0-0 and claim more profit. In this case you only lose if a 3-3 or 4-4 draw appears with the total profit you can claim being around 10-20% of your stake. |
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If you want small consistent profits, lay 0-0 several seconds before HT, but green up as the 2nd half kicks off. HT layers push the price out more often than not. |
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Football/Soccer matches 1. Place a BTL trade on 0-0 in the correct score market. 2. Place a BTL trade on Over 1.5 goals in the goals market. Now, this is not a dead cert or ARB. But when the odds allow in both markets then the following occurs: - You get to half-time and no goals have been scored. The odds on 1 above will have nearly halved allowing you to cover any loss on 2 above and still make a nice profit. - A goal gets scored before half time which means 1 above is lost but the odds on 2 above have shrunk enough to cover that loss and still make a nice profit. However, you will need to research which games to trade on. Ideally the odds on 2 above should be >= 1.4 or so. You will also need to work out what stakes to use on each. |
| Strategy to this using lays on two of the correct score market entries and one on the under/over 3.5 market. |
| Bet against a team Bet correct scores on that team winning Use the over goals markets on scores higher than your correct score bets |
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Well, here are my nuggets for under 4.5 trading:
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QUICK SUMMARY:Bet on over 1,5 goals instead of 2,5 Analyze the games and only the ones predicted for over 2,5 qualify for this strategy Don't place any bets until the odds for over 1,5 goals reach at least 1,50 or more (we recommend waiting for 40 minutes or the whole first half) If the goal is scored in the first 60 minutes of the game, you'll be making money if you cash out or you can leave the bet open and wait for another goal. This depends on what you see if you're watching the game. If the goal is hanging in the air - keep it open.
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| Let's say the 0-0 odds are around 9.2 and the over 1,5 goals are about 1.45. You use 100 units total stake so dutched will be around 86,38 on over 1.5 and 13.62 on 0-0. If a goal is scored in the first half it is clear that the money you make in the over market covers the loss on the correct score market so no problem there. But if the score at half time is 0-0 the odds on the correct score market go down to about 4 while the odds on the over 1,5 goals market go to about 2.55. So if you close your position on the correct score market you basically win double the stake in that market, in this case around 13,62. But the loss on the over 1,5 market is a lot more than that. My question is: if 0-0 at half time do you close the position on the correct score market, take the profit and hope for a goal in order to close the over market in which case a 0-0 final score loses the stake on over 1,5 market? Or do you accept the loss on the selection overall? |
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- No team odds on favourite |
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I run two strategies everyday using automated software on Betfair.
Both strategies bring in a useful second income on auto pilot each month. Could I just say it took me many hours of work and study to start making money from this so unless you are prepared to put in the effort it is not for you. If you do get really interested and have any questions feel free to message me and I will try and help out.
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The Basics of DutchingDutching is considered to be an advanced betting technique, but the basic concept is actually rather simple. This method is used to cover multiple selections and guarantee which selection returns the same amount of wins. When you want to back two or more possible outcomes at different odds but don't favor one odd or the over, this technique can be useful. It was traditionally associated with horse racing betting. Bettors would use it when they were confident that the winner of race would come from a number of selections, but they couldn't confidently predict which of those selections would win. For example, they might identify three horses as being the best in an eight-horse race. They would use dutching techniques to back all three of those horses and make the same return regardless of which one won. Now, this technique only works in certain situations, as you have to be able to back all the relevant selections and still have the potential to make a profit. Thankfully there's an easy way to work out whether this is possible. Calculate the implied probability of the odds for each selection, and total them up. If the total is less than 100%, dutching is a viable option. If the total is 100% or more, then it's not. Recommended Reading Not familiar with implied probability? You should be! In fact, in order to become a successful sports bettors, you NEED to understand how implied probability works. Please read our article on probability and value to find out everything you need to know. Although this article is about dutching when soccer betting, we'll use a horse racing example to illustrate the basic concept. This will just make it a little easier to understand, because dutching horse races is very straightforward. Let's imagine that there's a six-horse race, and we've highlighted two horses that we think have the best chances of winning. Since it's difficult to decide which one to back, we choose to back them both. One is at odds of 3.70, and the other is at odds of 2.80. First things first; we need to calculate the implied probabilities of these odds. We can use the calculation below to find exactly what we need. 1 / Decimal Odds This will give us an answer between zero and one. Technically, probability should be expressed this way. A probability of zero means something cannot possibly happen, and a probability of one means something will definitely happen. For the purposes of sports betting, however, we typically express probabilities as percentages. So after applying the above calculation, we multiply the answer by 100 to get the appropriate percentage. Here are the calculations we need to do to get the implied probabilities for the odds of the horses we want to back. Remember, one is at odds of 3.70 and the other is at odds of 2.80. (1 / 3.70) x 100 = 27.03% (1 / 2.80) x 100 = 35.71% Please note; if you don't feel comfortable doing these calculations on your own, you can use our website's very own odds convertor tool that will calculate the implied probably for you automatically. This might be an easier option worth considering. If we add the two probabilities together we get 62.74%. Well below 100%, so dutching is a viable option. The next step is to calculate the required stakes, so that we get the same return regardless of which horse wins. This is a little more complicated, so we ask that you please use the following formula. (A / B) x C A is the implied probability of the relevant selection, B is the total implied probability of all the relevant selections, and C is the total amount we wish to stake. We've already established that the total implied probabilities of the two selections is 62.74%, so we need to use the following calculations to determine our required stakes. We'll assume we want to bet a total of $100 on the race. (27.03% / 62.74%) x $100 = $43.08 (35.71% / 62.74%) x $100 = $56.92 Based on this we'd stake $43.08 on the horse at odds of 3.70, and $56.92 on the horse at odds of 2.80. As long as one of those two horses wins, we're going to get a return of just under $160. Minus our original stake, we're left with nearly $60 in profit. Of course, we lose the whole $100 if neither of our chosen horses wins. Dutching still involves risk. It's just about spreading that risk evenly across multiple selections. This is a very important point, as dutching is sometimes presented as a way to make guaranteed profits. It's not. That's arbitrage betting, which is something else entirely. If you're interested in that, please feel free to read our article that explains arbitrage as a sports betting strategy. So why use dutching techniques at all then? How does it benefit us when the potential return is equal across multiple selections? While these are fair questions, the answers aren't going to be immediately obvious. In very simple terms, dutching is just another way to bet for value. We use it when backing a single selection isn't the right option for us, or when we want to improve our chances of winning by covering more than one possible outcome. For example, let's say we're looking at an upcoming soccer game and we feel that one team is better than the other. Although we think they're better, we don't think they're a LOT better. We're confident that they won't lose, but we don't necessarily believe they are going to win either. We don't have enough confidence in our favored team to just outright back them, since we clearly believe a draw is a distinct possibility. This presents an excellent opportunity for us to dutch two wagers: one on our favored team to win, and one on the draw. Dutching ensures that our risk is spread evenly across both wagers, and we'll get the same return regardless of whether it's a win for our favored team or a draw. We are at risk if our favored team actually loses, but we believe the chances of that happening are relatively slim. When this type of scenario presents itself, dutching becomes a viable option. Of course, there are many other scenarios where's it appropriate too. We're now going to explain some specific dutching techniques that we like to use, and the kind of scenarios we like to use them in. Dutching Correct ScoresDutching correct scores is a very popular soccer dutching strategy. It's also one of the most straightforward. The idea here is simply to cover a selection of the most likely final scores, by placing the necessary correct score wagers. This strategy is extremely flexible, as you can choose whichever correct scores you think are the most likely. Just make sure that the relevant odds meet the necessary criteria so that there's the potential for profit. It's also wise to check to see if the combined wagers genuinely offer good value, and that dutching is truly more beneficial than just backing a single outcome. We know of some bettors who used a fixed set of scores for every game. They simply cover five or six of the most common scores, and hope that they make an overall profit based on the law of averages. We prefer to avoid this approach, because there are too many unknowns. We think the better option is to pick which scores to cover based on an assessment of the relevant game. This is what we do, and it works out pretty well for us. There is, however, one scenario where we use the same set of scores almost every time. In games between two evenly matched teams that both have good defenses, we typically cover the following correct scores.
Our theory here is that these types of games are likely to be low scoring, and that neither team is likely to score or concede more than a single goal. Chances are high that they'll end up with one of the above four scores as the final result. Let's see how we would actually apply this strategy in practice. Here are the odds associated with the relevant scores for our hypothetical game.
After we've determined the implied probabilities, the next step is to make sure they don't add up to more than 100%.
The total here is just over 52%, so clearly it's low enough to proceed. We then need to calculate how much we need to stake on each score to get even profits. If our total stake was $100, the following stakes would be required.
Based on this, we'll stand to win just over $90 if one of these scores is correct. That's effectively a 90% return on our total stake of $100, which is the same as placing a single wager at odds of 1.90. The odds for under 2.5 goals on the same game are just 1.65, so dutching is the better option if we're confident that 2-0 or 0-2 are not likely score lines. Dutching Correct Scores & Both Teams to ScoreIf we had to pick a favorite soccer dutching strategy, this would be it. While it is a little more complex than the one we just went over, it's still not overly complicated. All we need to do is identify appropriate games and then follow a defined set of wagering rules. We are looking for games that meet the following criteria.
When we've identified an appropriate game, we then place the following four wagers.
The theory here is that even if the favorite fails to win, they're likely to score at least one goal. In that case, the both teams to score wager will win. That wager will also win with a score line of 2-1 or 3-1. Basically, we're covering the most likely outcomes, and even some of the unlikely ones. Here are the relevant odds from a recent game where we used this strategy.
The total of the relevant probabilities was just under 80%. For a $100 stake spread across the four wagers, our potential return was around $126. This is obviously a low return, but only some very unlikely outcomes would have resulted in us losing. So, in our opinion, this wager does offer value. The favorite ended up winning 2-0, so we won on one of the correct score wagers. We could, of course, have simply backed the favorite to win. The odds for that wager were 1.40, so the return would have been a little higher, but we would have also been exposed to more risk. Dutching gives us a little extra insurance on some of the other possible outcomes. Dutching Correct Scores & Over 1.5 GoalsThis is another dutching strategy that we prefer to use whenever we get the chance. It offers very low returns, but it's very low risk. Since we hardly ever lose with this strategy, the low returns aren't that big of an issue. We use this strategy when a game meets the following criteria.
Then, we place these three wagers.
With these wagers, the only outcome that will hurt us is if our favored team loses 1-0. All other outcomes are covered. This is why it's such a low risk strategy. We typically only get around a 5-10% return on our stake, which is decent considering that we win way more often than not.
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Pick two close teams were their will not be many goals. Laying one of them to win. And then backing the same team to win 1-0 2-1 and 2-0. so the only way you can lose is if the score is 3-0 or more to the team you havnt layed. What are your opinions on this kind of system? Thanks |
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- Lay the draw |
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Matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or
above. Using a £25 stake I enter the market pre-match with the
following stakes: |